My general rule of thumb is that a chassis plate is about as good as a 40C/W heatsink. If I have a component that is barely too hot running in free air, then tabbing it down to the chassis can resolve that kind of issue. If I have a component that is overheating on a decent heatsink, then connecting it to the chassis will make things much worse.
PJ provided me some information about this some time ago, though I don't have it handy. If you have a multimeter with a thermocouple and a DC bench supply, you can get TO-220 resistors and do the measurements yourself of the case temperature in free air vs. the case temperature mounted on an 1/8" piece of AL.