Yes, that is a reasonable conclusion. IIRC, you swapped the tubes so it isn't a shorted heater. That only leaves the transformer and input wiring.
Just to be sure first clip the two diodes, bend them so they are obviously open. That leaves the transformer with no load, no diodes and caps. Try powering it up one more time and check the fuse. If it blows, it is the input wiring shorted somewhere after the fuse or a shorted transformer.
Maybe Doc or PJ can give you resistance readings for the primary and secondary sides of the transformer.
If the fuse holds then two caps, two diodes and a resistor will put you back listening to music.