The circuit for a channel is more than just the output jack. It starts at the RCA jack, goes to the pot, then to the first tube, then to the second tube. About half the pins on each tube, plus associated components (resistors, capacitors, diodes) are all relevant here. Checking all solder connections will take just about as long as trying to single out things only connected to one channel.
Yes tubes can quiet down as they get used. A tube that is still making noise around the 50-100hour mark will probably not get quieter, but of course that test is only valid if you KNOW the tube is the problem (i.e. you have a known flawless amp). The test to see if the noise is coming from a tube is to get another tube. Crack tubes are cheap and easy to find...